Special Briefing on the Outlook for 2026: How States & Cities Will Adapt to Wrenching Change

The record-long federal government shutdown and congressional gridlock following passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act herald what is likely to be a year of painful adjustment for many US states, counties, and cities. Our panel of experts will discuss critical topics including the economic outlook, the likelihood of further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, the impact of sweeping cutbacks in Medicaid and other federal programs, and turmoil in bond markets as federal deficits produce an upsurge in short-term US Treasury borrowing. Confirmed speakers include:

• Matt Fabian, Partner, Municipal Market Analytics
• Eric Kim, Senior Director, U.S. Public Finance Ratings, Fitch Ratings
• Allison Schrager, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute
• Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist, Apollo

Moderated by William Glasgall, Volcker Alliance Public Finance Adviser and Penn IUR Fellow, and Susan Wachter, Co-Director of the Penn Institute for Urban Research and Wharton Professor of Real Estate and Professor of Finance, this briefing is the sixty-fourth in a series of sixty-minute online conversations featuring experts from the national research networks of the Volcker Alliance and Penn IUR, along with other leading academics, economists, and federal, state, and local leaders. 

Special Briefings are made possible by funding from The Travelers Institute, the Volcker Alliance, and members of the Penn IUR Advisory Board. Recordings of the entire Special Briefings series are available on the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR websites. 

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Related Materials

Allison Schrager's Known Unknowns newsletter

Fitch summaries of Eric Kim’s papers: 

U.S. States, Locals Face Shifting Headwinds with Strong Resilience

Federal Spending Cuts Push More Fiscal Risk to State, Local Governments

State outlook paper from Geoff Buswick at S&P Global (free with registration): 
U.S. States 2026 Outlook: As States Face Widening Challenges, Their Actions Likely Will Uphold Credit Stability

Torsten Slok's Daily Spark