Rethinking the Heavy Hand of Flood Prevention in Informal Settlements: An Investigation of Retreat-Related Practices in the Philippines

Researchers and decision-makers increasingly favor managed retreat as an adaptation to address urban floods exacerbated by climate impacts. In the informal settlements of the Global South, national governments, development banks, and other knowledge brokers choose relocation over slum upgrading in their retreat-related activities. They disproportionately relocate informal settlers—who lack legal land tenure— despite the fact that the risk profiles of many places is similar to those that the UN and other global bodies recommend in-situ climate-sensitive upgrade projects.

I asked two questions in my research: (1) why do governments engaging in retreat policy in informal settlements favor relocation rather than in-situ approaches? and (2) under what conditions would these governments be open to employing in-situ adaptation approaches more often? I sought answers in a case study of retreat-related policies in Manila, Philippines chosen because of the city’s high exposure to urban flooding, its large number of informal settlers, and its extensive application of both relocation and upgrading programs. I engaged in text and map analysis, participant observations, and 20 interviews (virtual) with public, private, and nongovernmental representatives to investigate three national retreat-related programs between 2010 and 2016 at five sites.

By beginning to detail key place-based factors, logics, and practices driving government-led retreat in the name of urban flood prevention, this study opened up a menu of adaptation pathways and strategies tailored to different contexts and forms of decision-making. I found that state-led relocation patterns more often align with economically-driven land use changes than disaster-driven or planned modes of retreat. Government logics primarily justified, on a project-by-project basis, (1) in-city relocations using short-term horizons and (2) onsite upgrades without mitigation measures for future climate impacts.

Planning scholars and practitioners can use these results to identify and facilitate more diverse, locally appropriate forms of adaptation in the Global South. Rather than approaching retreat as an exercise for relocating people, stakeholders throughout the Global South can integrate land use and livelihood considerations—when feasible—to ensure that residents can safely stay in place as long as possible while they plan future movements.

Sam Geldin received his PhD in in City and Regional Planning from the Weitzman School of Design. He is an incoming Postdoctoral Fellow at Penn IUR.