The Effects of Neighborhood Investments on Public Safety

Investments in police and punitive sanctions can reduce crime, but they are costly solutions and can lead to harmful consequences, mainly for historically marginalized communities. The recent protests against police use of force and racism, compounded with the pervasiveness of unfading concentrated disadvantage, have pressed policymakers to explore alternative crime prevention strategies. Community investments have long been considered promising alternatives. Still, there is limited research on which are most effective in making neighborhoods safer, particularly on scalable interventions that leverage private investments. My doctoral research contributes to closing this knowledge gap by assessing three policy interventions.

Using two quasi-experimental designs, the first evaluation focuses on a prominent place-based capital investment policy: Opportunity Zones. Four years after its implementation, there are no neighborhood changes –urban development, property prices, poverty, employment, and income– nor public safety changes–calls for service, police stops, crimes, and arrests. Investing in disadvantaged areas is crucial, but it should be well-targeted to the neighborhoods’ needs and physical design.

The second evaluation examines how expanding residential lending can reduce neighborhood crime. By leveraging differential exposure to banks’ local market share and common national mortgage shocks, the research finds that when banks make more home loans, communities experience a public safety improvement. Black, Hispanic, and poor communities benefit more; no evidence of significant gentrification changes exists. Private investments can provide benefits beyond their intended recipients and be a promising alternative to reducing crime.

The third evaluation studies the long-term public safety impacts of the once-legal 1930s racially discriminatory maps that limited residential loans to racial minority creditworthy individuals. Comparing areas near different color-grade boundaries around a small bandwidth reveals significant crime increases in redlined areas. Changes in arrests seem to concentrate on property and low-level offenses. Areas labeled green experienced public safety improvements and fewer arrests for violent and non-serious offenses and police stops. Long-term structural disinvestment is a driving factor preventing safer neighborhoods.

In summary, my doctoral dissertation provides evidence that some place-based investments can improve public safety. In contrast, others may be inadequate, at least in the short term, to foster neighborhood changes.

David Mitre Becerril is a doctoral candidate in Criminology at the University of Pennsylvania. Born and raised in Mexico City, he worked at the Mexican census bureau’s public safety and justice unit and at a government research agency prior to graduate school. David’s research interests lie in understanding how place-based interventions affect public safety and the role financial incentives play in deterring criminal behavior. His work has appeared in Criminology & Public Policy, has been recognized by the American Society of Criminology (Gene Carte Award), and has been highlighted by news outlets. He has also received the APPAM Equity & Inclusion Student Fellowship. David will join the University of Connecticut School of Public Policy as an Assistant Professor in Fall 2023.