Research Paper

The COVID-19 Recession: Which Urban Economies Have Performed Better or Worse and Why

October 20, 2021

Authors John Landis

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Overview

This policy brief analyzes employment trends in the 105 largest U.S. metropolitan areas to understand which urban economies fared better or worse during the COVID-19 recession and subsequent recovery period. It finds that while the recession impacted metro areas fairly consistently, certain factors like industrial composition, past economic growth, population density, and worker productivity influenced the severity of job losses and the pace of recovery.

Key Message

The COVID-19 recession exposed vulnerabilities in certain industries like leisure/hospitality and health/education, impacting job losses more in metro areas reliant on those sectors. Larger economies were also hit harder initially. Pre-pandemic economic momentum aided the recovery, while density and productivity factors associated with agglomeration economies slowed it. Overall, the severity and consistency of the pandemic's impact across geographies suggests large cities should proactively build economic resilience to future shocks.